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Papers/Effective Benchmarks for Optical Turbulence Modeling

Effective Benchmarks for Optical Turbulence Modeling

Christopher Jellen, Charles Nelson, Cody Brownell, John Burkhardt

2024-01-07Time Series ForecastingTime Series Regression
PaperPDFCode(official)

Abstract

Optical turbulence presents a significant challenge for communication, directed energy, and imaging systems, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer. Effective modeling of optical turbulence strength is critical for the development and deployment of these systems. The lack of standard evaluation tools, especially long-term data sets, modeling tasks, metrics, and baseline models, prevent effective comparisons between approaches and models. This reduces the ease of reproducing results and contributes to over-fitting on local micro-climates. Performance characterized using evaluation metrics provides some insight into the applicability of a model for predicting the strength of optical turbulence. However, these metrics are not sufficient for understanding the relative quality of a model. We introduce the \texttt{otbench} package, a Python package for rigorous development and evaluation of optical turbulence strength prediction models. The package provides a consistent interface for evaluating optical turbulence models on a variety of benchmark tasks and data sets. The \texttt{otbench} package includes a range of baseline models, including statistical, data-driven, and deep learning models, to provide a sense of relative model quality. \texttt{otbench} also provides support for adding new data sets, tasks, and evaluation metrics. The package is available at \url{https://github.com/cdjellen/otbench}.

Results

TaskDatasetMetricValueModel
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE0.428GBRT
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE0.481Mean Window Forecast
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE0.551Minute Climatology
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE0.581RNN
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE0.658Climatology
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE0.93Linear Forecast
Time Series ForecastingMLO-Cn2RMSE1.227Persistence
Time Series ForecastingUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.16GBRT
Time Series ForecastingUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.182Mean Window Forecast
Time Series ForecastingUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.187RNN
Time Series ForecastingUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.453Minute Climatology
Time Series ForecastingUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.821Persistence
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.428GBRT
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.481Mean Window Forecast
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.551Minute Climatology
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.581RNN
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.658Climatology
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.93Linear Forecast
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE1.227Persistence
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.16GBRT
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.182Mean Window Forecast
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.187RNN
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.453Minute Climatology
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.821Persistence
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.458Hybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.53RNN
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.625Minute Climatology
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.632Climatology
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.675Offshore Macro Meteorological
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.046Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.208Persistence
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.217Macro Meteorological
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.34GBRT
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.178Offshore Macro Meteorological
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.299GBRT
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.303Hybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.358Linear Forecast
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.375RNN
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.452Minute Climatology
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.48Climatology
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.758Persistence
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.864Macro Meteorological
Time Series AnalysisUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.91Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.212GBRT
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.336RNN
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.504Minute Climatology
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE0.661Climatology
Time Series AnalysisMLO-Cn2RMSE1.209Persistence
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.458Hybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.53RNN
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.625Minute Climatology
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.632Climatology
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE0.675Offshore Macro Meteorological
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.046Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.208Persistence
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.217Macro Meteorological
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (long-term)RMSE1.34GBRT
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.178Offshore Macro Meteorological
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.299GBRT
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.303Hybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.358Linear Forecast
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.375RNN
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.452Minute Climatology
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.48Climatology
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.758Persistence
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.864Macro Meteorological
Time Series RegressionUSNA-Cn2 (short-duration)RMSE0.91Air-Water Temperature Difference
Time Series RegressionMLO-Cn2RMSE0.212GBRT
Time Series RegressionMLO-Cn2RMSE0.336RNN
Time Series RegressionMLO-Cn2RMSE0.504Minute Climatology
Time Series RegressionMLO-Cn2RMSE0.661Climatology
Time Series RegressionMLO-Cn2RMSE1.209Persistence

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